A letter from Verde Capital Management’s President & CEO, Carl Szasz

We understand that recent market volatility may be causing concern, and we want to assure you that we are actively monitoring developments and making strategic adjustments to protect your investments. The US stock market has declined over 10% from its peak just a few weeks ago, largely driven by uncertainty surrounding trade policies and tariffs. However, our approach remains disciplined, data-driven, and focused on long-term financial success.

Understanding Market Volatility

So far this year, the markets have experienced some notable fluctuations. As measured by the S&P 500 index, which tracks the 500 largest companies in the U.S., the market at one point was down nearly 10% from its recent peak. While this may seem concerning, it is important to recognize that a 10% peak-to-trough downturn happens almost every year. Historically, such declines do not indicate that a recession is imminent or even likely; rather, they reflect a temporary shift in market sentiment from optimism to pessimism. These fluctuations are a natural part of investing and should not deter long-term investors from their financial goals.

Much of the recent turbulence stems from uncertainty around tariffs—some of which have been imposed and later removed on countries like Canada and Mexico, with potential for additional tariffs involving China and Europe. Many businesses worry about supply chain disruptions, increased costs, and potential price inflation. The situation may feel reminiscent of the 2022 inflation scare, which led to a market downturn and widespread speculation about a recession that ultimately did not materialize.

We also recognize that media coverage can amplify market anxieties. News sources often present issues through a political lens, which can make it seem as if dramatic changes are imminent. However, despite concerns, critical government functions remain stable—Social Security checks continue to be paid, Medicare and Medicaid remain intact, and essential services continue as usual. By maintaining a long-term perspective, we can see past the short-term noise and focus on fundamental economic realities.

Our Strategic Approach

At Verde, we are taking proactive steps to manage risk and seize opportunities amidst market fluctuations:

1. Currency Hedging:Trade tensions often cause currency fluctuations that contribute to market volatility. By utilizing futures contracts and hedging strategies, we can mitigate these risks, as demonstrated recently when the U.S. imposed and then removed tariffs on Canada. The initial market reaction was temporary, and currency valuations soon stabilized.
2. Geographic Diversification:We are ensuring that portfolios are not overly concentrated in any single region. While the U.S. remains one of the most attractive markets globally, we are identifying strong investment opportunities in Europe, Asia-Pacific, Japan, and Latin America, where valuations are more favorable.
3. Sector & Industry Diversification: Companies that rely heavily on international trade—such as manufacturers and retailers—are more vulnerable to tariff-related disruptions. We are increasing exposure to sectors that are less impacted by trade conflicts to provide greater stability.
4. Shifts in Supply Chains:The COVID-19 pandemic forced many companies to regionalize their supply chains, reducing reliance on global trade. Automakers, for example, now manufacture cars for the U.S. primarily in North America, for Europe in Europe, and for Asia in Asia. This shift makes tariffs less disruptive than they would have been in a more globalized system.

The Economic Outlook

Despite short-term market concerns, the U.S. economy remains strong:

• Low unemployment continues to support consumer spending and economic growth.
• Inflation is within a manageable range (approximately 2–3%), below long-term historical averages.
• Economic growth is solid, with GDP expanding around 3%—faster than the historical trend.
• The Federal Reserve stands ready to adjust interest rates if needed to sustain economic momentum.

Furthermore, progress toward a more balanced federal budget could reduce government borrowing costs, potentially lowering interest rates on mortgages and car loans while easing inflationary pressures. All of these factors support a positive market outlook for long-term investors.

Staying Focused on Long-Term Goals

Market downturns often create opportunities for disciplined investors. With many stocks down 5%, 10%, or even 20% from recent highs, we are identifying attractive buying opportunities to strengthen your portfolio. If you have cash available or would like to explore investment opportunities, we encourage you to reach out to your advisor.

Rest assured that we remain committed to safeguarding your financial well-being through prudent risk management, thoughtful diversification, and a long-term perspective. Should you have any questions or wish to discuss your portfolio in more detail, please do not hesitate to contact us.

As we navigate these market fluctuations, it’s essential to maintain a sense of optimism—a crucial component of any successful investment strategy. Investing inherently involves a belief that the future holds greater potential than the present. Therefore, it’s beneficial to steer clear of sources that may dampen this positive outlook.

Optimism is Essential

During this season of reflection and mindfulness, a time traditionally associated with reflection and abstinence, we encourage you to consider a “fast” from news outlets, podcasts, or television programs that are overly critical of politicians, religious figures, or celebrities. By limiting exposure to negative narratives, we can create space to appreciate the positive developments unfolding around us. Here are a few uplifting stories and resources that highlight progress and innovation:

• Michigan’s Retirement Tax Reduction

Michigan’s Lowering MI Costs Plan (Public Act 4 of 2023) reduces state taxes on IRA retirement distributions. Signed into law on March 7, 2023, it amends Michigan’s Income Tax Act to gradually increase deductions on retirement and pension benefits through 2026.

For detailed information, you can visit the Michigan Department of Treasury’s FAQ page on these changes.

• Advancements in Robotics

Innovations in robotics are transforming daily life. For instance, the humanoid robot “Figure 1” is designed to assist with household chores, showcasing the potential of technology to enhance our everyday experiences. You can watch a demonstration of Figure 1 in action here.

• Inspirational Reading

I’m currently reading Life Force: How New Breakthroughs in Precision Medicine Can Transform the Quality of Your Life & Those You Love by Tony Robbins, Peter H. Diamandis, and Robert Hariri.

This book explores cutting-edge medical advancements and insights on longevity, inspiring me and expanding my understanding of health optimization. More information about the book is available here.

By focusing on positive developments and limiting exposure to negativity, we can cultivate a more optimistic mindset, which is essential for long-term investment success and personal well-being.

Thank you for your trust in us.