The Retirement Lie: Why “Safe” Investing Is Your Biggest Risk

The Retirement Lie: Why Your “Safe” Portfolio Might Be Your Biggest Risk

Most of us have been fed the same retirement script for decades: as you get older, you should sell your stocks and buy bonds to “protect” what you’ve built. It’s the “glidepath” logic found in almost every Target-Date Fund (TDF) and 401(k) default option in America.

But what if the very strategy designed to protect you is actually the one most likely to leave you broke?

A groundbreaking study by Cederburg, Anarkulova, and O’Doherty (2023)* has sent shockwaves through the financial industry by challenging the “status quo” of lifecycle investing. At Verde, we don’t just follow industry trends; we follow the data. This data suggests it’s time to rethink everything.

 

The Study: 2,500 Years of Data vs. The “Experts”

To find the truth, the researchers didn’t just look at a few decades of US market history. They analyzed 38 developed countries and nearly 2,500 years of country-month return data. They compared the industry-standard Target-Date Funds against a controversial alternative: staying 100% in equities for your entire life.

 

The findings were staggering:

  • Trillions in Potential Gains: The researchers estimate that Americans could realize trillions of dollars in welfare gains by ditching traditional advice for an all-equity strategy.

  • More Wealth, Less Risk: The all-equity “Stocks/I” with international  strategy generated 32% higher average retirement wealth than the representative Target-Date Fund.

  • The Ruin Paradox: Most people buy bonds to avoid “ruin.” However, the study found the Target-Date Fund had a 16.9% probability of financial ruin (depleting all wealth before death), while the all-equity strategy had a ruin probability of just 8.2%.

  • The Inflation Trap: Bonds often fail to keep up with long-term inflation. In high-inflation scenarios, the ruin probability for a TDF spiked to 56.5%, while the all-equity strategy remained significantly more resilient at 18.5%.

     

Why is this controversial?

This study flies in the face of “generally accepted investment theories” used by regulators and major Wall Street firms. The reason most advisors won’t tell you this is because an all-equity portfolio is a wilder ride. It experiences larger “drawdowns”—those temporary, gut-wrenching market drops that make people want to panic-sell.

 

Wall Street prioritizes minimizing “psychological pain” in the short term, even if it means you end up with less money in the long run. We believe you deserve to know the economic cost of that “comfort”.

 

Are you playing it too safe?

The “safe” path of shifting into bonds as you age might actually be increasing your risk of running out of money, especially if you live a long, healthy life.

We pride ourselves on staying at the forefront of academic research, even when the findings are controversial. The world is changing, and your retirement strategy should be based on 2,500 years of evidence, not 30 years of habit.

Is your portfolio built on outdated rules of thumb? If you’re wondering if your current “glidepath” is leading you toward a lower standard of living in retirement, let’s have a data-driven conversation. We can help you stress-test your strategy against the latest findings to ensure your wealth is truly protected for the long haul.

Click here to schedule a strategy audit.

* Anarkulova, Aizhan, Scott Cederburg, and Michael S. O’Doherty. 2023. “Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice.” Working Paper, September 21.

Generational Financial Planning: A Guide to Building Lasting Wealth

At Verde Capital Management, we believe wealth should be a tool for freedom, not a source of complexity. Our mission statement, after all, is to help turn money into life fulfillment. For families with significant investable assets, financial planning is less about “saving” and more about optimizing cash flow, protecting assets to leave a legacy, and ensuring your capital works as hard as you do. This guide outlines the high-level strategies our clients use to maintain control over their financial future for generations to come.

 

Successful families and business owners often face a “complexity tax” where disconnected accounts and lack of a central strategy lead to missed opportunities. A focused plan solves this by:

  • Synchronizing personal and business interests to ensure your total net worth is working toward a singular vision.
  • Mitigating tax drag and unnecessary risk through proactive asset location and insurance structures.
  • Solidifying a legacy by preparing the next generation to manage and grow family wealth.

Step 1: Aligning vision with capital allocation

High-net-worth planning begins with a high-level audit of your “North Star.” For business owners, this often involves balancing the desire to reinvest in the company with the need to diversify personal wealth.

Take time to rank your primary objectives. Are you focused on a specific exit timeline, tax-advantaged college funding, or perhaps philanthropic goals? Once your priorities are ranked, translate them into specific dollar targets for 5-year and 20-year horizons.

 

Step 2: Advanced cash flow and liquidity management

At this level of wealth, “budgeting” is really about intentional cash flow management. The goal is to ensure that your lifestyle is funded while maximizing the amount of capital directed toward appreciating assets.

  • Audit your “Lifestyle Burn”: Review the last quarter of personal and business expenses to identify areas where cash is being underutilized.
  • Optimize Liquidity: Ensure you have the right amount of cash for opportunities without holding so much that you suffer from “cash drag” in an inflationary environment.
  • Automate Wealth Building: Set up high-value transfers to your investment accounts the moment your distributions or salary hit your accounts.

Step 3: Fortress-level protection and the cash reserve

For families with $500k to $2.5M in assets, an “emergency fund” is more accurately described as a cash reserve. This should cover 6 to 12 months of your lifestyle expenses. This money should be in a high-yield interest savings account, like the Verde Flourish account which provides immediate access without the need to liquidate stocks during a market downturn. 

Step 4: Strategic debt and leverage

Wealthy families use debt as a tool rather than a burden.

  • Low-Rate Arbitrage: If you have low-rate mortgage or business debt, it often makes more sense to keep that leverage in place while investing excess funds into potentially higher-yielding assets.
  • Tax Deductibility: Always evaluate whether debt can be structured to be tax-deductible, particularly for business-related expenses or real estate investments.
  • Securities-Backed Line of Credit: Using a securities-backed line of credit (SBLOC) could be a smart way to enhance your portfolio and give you flexibility for your lifestyle needs.

Step 5: Tax-efficient investing and asset location

With a portfolio between $500k and $2.5M, where you hold your assets is just as important as what you own.

  • Retirement Optimization: Maximize retirement plan contributions if you are a high-income earner to significantly reduce your taxable income.
  • Education Funding: Utilize 529 plans for their tax-free growth, or consider more flexible trust structures if estate tax planning is a concern.
  • Tax Location: Instead of overfunding your future retirement, consult with a Verde advisor to minimize your lifetime tax burden and maximize your liquidity.

Step 7: Mentoring the next generation

The greatest risk to family wealth is often the “shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves” phenomenon. Use your wealth as a teaching tool for your children.

  • Early Exposure: Introduce teens to the concepts of compounding interest and equity ownership through custodial brokerage accounts.
  • Partner With Experts: Seek advisors like Verde Capital Management who prioritize education with their financial advice.
  • Philanthropic Values: Use a Donor-Advised Fund to involve your children in charitable giving decisions. This teaches them how to manage money with a sense of purpose.

 

A 30-day roadmap for the high-net-worth family

  • Week 1: Conduct a high-level “state of the union” meeting to align on long-term family and business goals.
  • Week 2: Review your balance sheet to identify “lazy money” that is not currently invested or serving a specific purpose.
  • Week 3: Consult with your tax professional and advisor to ensure your current investment contributions are optimized for the current tax year.
  • Week 4: Review your estate documents and beneficiary designations to ensure they reflect your current assets and family structure.

 

Managing a seven-figure portfolio requires more than just a “set it and forget it” approach. You may benefit from Verde’s specialized services if you are facing a liquidity event, looking to optimize a complex tax situation, or wanting to integrate digital assets into your financial plan.

Verde offers judgment-free financial coaching and comprehensive wealth management for families who value their time and want a professional partner to navigate the complexities of wealth.

Ready to optimize your family’s financial future? Schedule a discovery call at bit.ly/callwithverde.

The Netflix Test for Investors

Every time the news cycle intensifies, whether it is wars, elections, geopolitical tensions, or economic headlines, it is natural for investors to feel uneasy. Clients often ask us some version of the same question:

 

“Should I be worried about my portfolio because of everything going on in the world?”

 

It is a fair question. The events we see in the headlines are often tragic, serious, and important. But there is also a key distinction investors need to make.

 

Not every global event meaningfully changes the long-term value of the companies you own.

One way to think about this is what we like to call the “Netflix Litmus Test.”

 

The Netflix Litmus Test

Imagine you own shares of Netflix.

 

Now ask yourself a simple question:

 

Does this news fundamentally change how Netflix runs its business?

 

  • Are people going to stop watching shows?
  • Are subscriptions likely to collapse?
  • Is the company unable to produce content or distribute its service?

 

If the answer is no, then the event, while possibly significant from a global perspective, likely does not meaningfully affect the long-term value of the company. Of course, Netflix is just an example. You can apply this same question to any company in your portfolio.

 

This framework helps investors filter out noise and focus on what truly matters.

 

The Difference Between News and Investment Impact

 

The global news cycle is built around immediacy and urgency. Every headline feels like it demands attention.

 

But the stock market reflects business ownership, not just headlines.

 

When you own investments through diversified portfolios or broad market funds, you are essentially owning pieces of hundreds or thousands of businesses. Those businesses continue operating through events such as:

 

  • elections
  • geopolitical tensions
  • policy changes
  • economic cycles

 

History shows that while markets can be volatile in the short term, strong businesses adapt and continue generating value over time.

 

A Balanced Perspective

Acknowledging that many global events are tragic or deeply important is essential. Wars, humanitarian crises, and political conflicts impact millions of lives and deserve thoughtful attention.

 

But from an investment perspective, reacting emotionally to every headline can be damaging.

 

If investors constantly adjust their portfolios based on the latest news cycle, they risk:

 

  • selling at the wrong time
  • missing long-term growth
  • abandoning well-built financial plans

 

In other words, short-term reactions often hurt long-term outcomes.

 

What Actually Matters for Long-Term Investors

Instead of focusing on every headline, long-term investors are better served by concentrating on the fundamentals:

 

  • Strong businesses generating earnings
  • Global innovation and productivity
  • Long-term economic growth
  • Diversification across industries and markets
  • Staying disciplined with a financial plan

 

These factors have historically mattered far more than any single news event.

 

Why Discipline Matters

Investing success rarely comes from predicting the next geopolitical development.

It comes from consistency and patience.

The investors who tend to succeed over decades are the ones who:

 

  • avoid panic during uncertainty
  • stay focused on long-term goals
  • maintain diversified portfolios
  • tune out the daily noise

 

The Netflix Litmus Test is simply a reminder that not every headline requires a portfolio response.

 

The world will always have uncertainty. History is filled with periods that felt overwhelming at the time.

 

Yet businesses continued to grow, innovate, and create value. When the next big headline appears, pause and ask yourself, “Does this actually change how the companies I own operate?”

 

If the answer is no, it may be a signal to stay focused on the bigger picture. That bigger picture, long-term investing, has historically rewarded patience far more than reaction.

 

If you would like help building an investment strategy designed to weather uncertainty and stay aligned with your long-term goals, the team at Verde Capital Management is here to help.

 

Money & Marriage: 5 Conversations To Have Before Saying “I Do”

Valentine’s Day is often filled with flowers, dinner reservations, and thoughtful gifts, but one of the most meaningful ways to prepare for a strong marriage is through honest money conversations.

At Verde, we often see couples spend months planning a wedding and very little time planning their financial life together. Yet money remains one of the most common sources of stress in marriage.

The issue is rarely the math. It’s unspoken expectations, different money habits, and assumptions that were never discussed.

Before walking down the aisle, or early in marriage, here are 5 essential financial conversations every couple should have.

1. What Does Your Full Financial Picture Look Like?

Transparency builds trust.

This conversation isn’t about judgment, it’s about understanding what exists today so you can plan responsibly for tomorrow.

Before marriage, couples should openly discuss:

  • Income ranges

  • Outstanding debts such as student loans, credit cards, or car loans

  • Savings and emergency funds

  • Retirement accounts and investments

  • Major financial obligations

  • Credit history

Financial surprises, not financial numbers, are what tend to create conflict. When both partners understand the full picture, decisions become intentional instead of reactive.

2. What Was Money Like Growing Up?

Money habits are shaped long before adulthood.

One partner may have grown up in a household that avoided debt at all costs. Another may have seen credit used freely. One may value financial security above all else, while the other prioritizes experiences.

These differences are not right or wrong, they’re just different.

Understanding each other’s financial background often explains present-day behaviors, spending patterns, and comfort levels with risk.

Without this conversation, couples may misinterpret habits as character flaws rather than learned behavior.

3. How Will You Manage Money Together?

There is no single correct way to combine finances in marriage.

Some couples fully merge accounts.
Some keep finances separate.
Others use a hybrid system.

What matters most is that both partners agree on the system and understand how it works.

Before marriage, discuss:

  • Will accounts be combined, separate, or both?

  • How will shared expenses be divided?

  • Who will track bills and cash flow?

  • How will large purchases be decided?

Having these conversations early prevents assumptions from turning into frustration later.

4. What Are Your Shared Financial Goals?

Marriage isn’t just combining households, it’s combining direction.

Couples should talk through:

Short-term goals

  • Wedding expenses

  • Moving

  • Paying off debt

Mid-term goals

  • Buying a home

  • Starting a family

  • Travel plans

Long-term goals

  • Retirement

  • Financial independence

  • Legacy planning

When couples define goals together, financial decisions feel connected to something bigger than the monthly budget.

5. How Will You Handle Money Disagreements?

Even aligned couples will disagree about money at times.

Instead of avoiding that reality, decide in advance:

  • How will we talk about financial stress?

  • How will we make decisions when we disagree?

  • How often will we review our finances together?

A simple monthly or quarterly “money date” can prevent small issues from growing into larger ones.

Why Financial Conversations Before Marriage Matter

Financial conflict is one of the leading sources of stress in relationships.

Structured conversations before marriage help couples:

  • Reduce anxiety around money

  • Build trust through transparency

  • Create shared direction

  • Prevent avoidable misunderstandings

  • Strengthen long-term partnership

It may not feel traditionally romantic, but building a shared financial foundation is one of the most practical ways to strengthen a marriage.

At Verde, we believe financial discussions should feel steady, organized, and productive.

For couples who want guided support before marriage or early in married life, Verde’s Newlywed Money Plan provides a structured environment to work through these topics together.

Preparing for marriage isn’t just about planning a wedding, it’s about building a life on a strong financial foundation.

How a Credit Freeze Protects You From Identity Theft

Identity theft and credit fraud aren’t just annoying inconveniences. They can derail your finances, damage your credit, and create months of cleanup stress. Unfortunately, many people don’t realize they’re victims until after the damage is done.

One of the most effective and underused tools to protect yourself is a credit freeze, also known as a security freeze.

Let’s break down what it is, when you should use one, and exactly how to set it up with the three major credit bureaus.

 

What Is a Credit Freeze?

A credit freeze restricts access to your credit report so that new credit accounts cannot be opened in your name without your explicit permission.

That means:

  • No new credit cards
  • No new loans
  • No fraudulent accounts opened behind your back

Even if a criminal has your Social Security number, date of birth, and address, this stops them cold.

It’s important to note that doing this is free and does not affect your credit score.

Who Should Put a Freeze on Their Credit?

More people than you think.

You should strongly consider it if:

  • You’ve been a victim of identity theft or credit fraud
  • Your information was exposed in a data breach
  • You receive suspicious credit alerts or collection notices
  • You want maximum protection and don’t open new credit often

We work with many people who are high income earners, responsible savers, and tech savvy who still experience fraud. Identity theft isn’t about being careless, it’s about being exposed.

How to Place a Credit Freeze (Step-by-Step)

You must place a freeze separately with each of the three credit bureaus. Here are the direct links so you can do it quickly and securely:

Equifax 
Place, manage, or lift your freeze here:
https://www.equifax.com/personal/credit-report-services/credit-freeze/

TransUnion
Set up or manage your freeze here:
https://www.transunion.com/credit-freeze

Experian
Freeze or unfreeze your credit through Experian here:
https://www.experian.com/freeze/center.html

You’ll create an account with each bureau and can lift or temporarily unfreeze your credit anytime if you need to apply for credit in the future.

Will This Affect My Existing Accounts?

Many people think it does, but it:

  • Does not cancel existing credit cards or loans
  • Does not impact your credit score
  • Does not prevent you from using your credit
  • It only blocks new accounts from being opened.

How Do You Temporarily Lift It?

If you’re applying for a mortgage, car loan, or new credit card, you can:

  • Temporarily lift the freeze for a specific time window
  • Unfreeze it for a specific lender
  • Re-freeze it once the application is complete
  • It only takes a few minutes and can usually be done online.

Why We Recommend This to Our Clients

We’ve worked with too many families who:

  • Didn’t know fraud happened until months later
  • Lost time, money, and peace of mind fixing it
  • Thought “this won’t happen to me” until it did

It’s one of the highest-impact, lowest-effort protective steps you can take. If you rarely open new credit, there’s almost no downside.

Lock It Down Before You Need To

Identity theft isn’t slowing down, but you can slow criminals down. Taking this action:

  • Costs nothing
  • Takes less than an hour total
  • Can save you years of financial cleanup

If you want help understanding whether a credit freeze or broader financial protection plan makes sense for your situation, that’s exactly the kind of conversation we have with clients every day so reach out to a Verde advisor.

Your money should be working for you and not cleaning up someone else’s mess.

Loud Budgeting: Setting Financial Boundaries This Year

Loud budgeting is a money trend where people openly and unapologetically talk about their financial boundaries, especially when saying no to spending.

Instead of quietly skipping plans or feeling awkward about money decisions, loud budgeters say things like:

  • “That’s not in my budget.”
  • “I’m saving for something more important.”
  • “I’m choosing not to spend money on that right now.”

The goal is to remove shame around money, normalize financial boundaries, and push back against pressure to overspend.

This trend gained traction on social media as people grew tired of “quiet luxury,” lifestyle inflation, and pretending to afford things that don’t actually fit their lives.

 

Why Is Loud Budgeting Trending Right Now?

This trend didn’t come out of nowhere. It’s a response to several real financial pressures:

  • Rising costs (groceries, housing, childcare)
  • Burnout from performative spending
  • Post-pandemic mindset shifts
  • A desire for more intentional living

People are searching for permission to spend differently and this “strategy” gives them language to do it.

This is why searches like “what is loud budgeting” and “is loud budgeting good or bad” are spiking right now.

 

Does Loud Budgeting Actually Work?

Sometimes! It can be helpful if it’s supported by a real financial plan. On its own, it often falls apart.

 

When Loud Budgeting Works

It can be effective when it helps you:

  • Set clear boundaries around spending
  • Reduce guilt and shame around money
  • Align spending with personal values
  • Say “no” without over-explaining

For people who’ve never talked openly about money, this can be empowering.

 

When Loud Budgeting Fails

It tends to fail when:

  • There’s no actual budget or cash flow system
  • Saying “no” replaces planning
  • It becomes performative instead of practical
  • People use it to avoid deeper financial decisions

In other words, being loud about money doesn’t automatically make you good with money.

 

Is Loud Budgeting Just Being Cheap?

No, but it can look that way if it’s misunderstood.

This strategy isn’t about spending the least amount possible. It’s about spending intentionally and being honest about tradeoffs.

However, without clarity, it can easily turn into reactive decisions, over-restriction, or confusion masked as confidence.

True financial confidence doesn’t come from announcing boundaries, it comes from knowing why those boundaries exist.

 

Is Loud Budgeting Good for High-Income Earners?

This is where the conversation gets interesting.

Many high-income earners struggle with money not because they don’t earn enough, but because they don’t have a system guiding their decisions. There could also added pressure in these social circles to “keep up with the Joneses.”

For them, loud budgeting can help reset social expectations, reduce lifestyle creep, and normalize intentional choices. But it often doesn’t go far enough.

High-income families usually don’t need louder boundaries,  they need better cash flow visibility, clear priorities, and a plan that balances today and the future.

Saying “no” is useful, but knowing what you’re saying yes to instead is far more powerful.

The problem? Both miss the mark if they don’t reflect real life.

A modern money system should:

  • Adapt to changing income and expenses
  • Support long-term goals
  • Reduce mental load
  • Make decisions easier, not necessarily louder

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A Smarter Alternative

Here’s the truth most trends won’t tell you:

You don’t need to announce every spending decision.
You need a plan that already made the decision for you.

When your money has a clear purpose:

  • Saying “no” feels obvious, not awkward
  • Spending becomes intentional, not emotional
  • You stop reacting and start choosing

At Verde, we see the most success when people move beyond trends and into simple, repeatable systems that reflect how they actually live.

 

Frequently Asked Questions About Loud Budgeting

Isn’t this the same as regular budgeting?

No. Loud budgeting focuses on communication and mindset, while budgeting focuses on structure. They work best when combined, not when one replaces the other.

Do I need to tell people my financial boundaries?

Only if it helps you. Financial clarity should reduce stress, not create performative pressure.

Can this strategy help me save money?

It can help short-term behavior, but long-term progress usually requires a clear cash flow system and defined goals.

Is this just another trend?

Yes, but it highlights a real need: people want permission to make intentional financial choices without shame.

 

Loud budgeting isn’t bad,  it just seems to be incomplete.

It opens the door to better conversations about money, but it doesn’t replace clarity, planning, or systems. If the trend helps you stop overspending and start asking better questions, that’s a win.

Just don’t confuse being loud about money with being intentional about it.

If you’re ready to move beyond trends and build a plan that supports the life you actually want, that’s where real financial confidence begins.

 

Why Most People Aren’t Actually Protected From Identity Theft

What Investors Get Wrong About Risk

By Carl Szasz, Founder & CEO

 

 

I want to tell you a story. It is not about magic beans or fairy tales, but about two simple portfolios. One sounds safe, the other sounds completely unhinged. Yet when The Motley Fool ran an experiment a couple years ago, half their paying subscribers, people who pride themselves on being sharp investors, chose the safe one. That blew my mind then and it still does today.

 

Here’s what they showed people. Portfolio A had 2 stocks, both rising 70%. Simple math that turns $100 into $170. Smooth sailing, nothing flashy. Portfolio B also had 2 stocks, but one crashed to zero while the other exploded 1,000%. That same $100 loses $50 on one side and grows to $500 on the other. The final result is $500, far better than $170. Every logical metric points to Portfolio B as the winner, yet nearly half the respondents still chose the safe, quiet route.

  

 

If you’re thinking “Carl, people don’t understand math.” That’s not it, they do. The real issue is they don’t like how the numbers feel. That’s the point. For 22 years I’ve watched investors, and myself, fall into the same trap. We care more about the road than the destination. We want every mile marker to sit higher than the last, with no potholes or detours. We want the sausage to look perfect while it is being made, not just taste great at the end.

 

Psychologists call it negativity bias. A 30% drop feels 10x worse than a 30% gain feels good. Humans absolutely hate feeling bad. I’ve sat across desks from clients who literally lost sleep over a single red day. They would ask, “Is NVIDIA done?” Are the geniuses at the top suddenly idiots? Never mind the fact that the same stock, bought 10 years ago for $10,000, is now worth $2.4 million. Like a rocket ship, it wobbles and it stalls sometimes, but it’s still pointed up. Yet the moment it dipped 30% one year or 50% another year, people bailed because the ride felt too wild.

 

Meanwhile, what were they running toward? Bonds. Cash. Commodities. Real estate. Stuff that sounds responsible. To be blunt, bond portfolios are total snoozers. The same $10,000, after 10 years, lands at $12,000. Yawn. Not evil, just sleepy. The stock market is not only risky, it is the only place your money wakes up.

 

Here’s where things get ugly. Advisors, myself included on weaker days, start listening. Those freaked out voices get loud. “Smooth it out,” they demand. Diversify. So what happens? We sell the rocket ship to buy the glider. That’s been referred to as “di-worsification.” Not diversification. You’re not spreading risk, you’re diluting upside because you can’t stand watching the dial twitch. The truth is that the market doesn’t owe you consistency. It rises about 75%¹ of the time. The other 25% is the price of admission. If you are not willing to ride that out, you’re in the wrong vehicle. Park the money in a CD or in an annuity. I know some planners cringe at the “A” word. Think of it like driving slower. It costs you time in reaching your destination, but if the bumps make you queasy, maybe the trade off is worth it.

 

If you are the kind of person who can look at Portfolio B and think, “I get it, one 0 and one 1000%, I would still take that ride,” then congratulations. You understand investing. You understand that growth comes from chaos, not comfort. David Gardner just released a book titled Rule Breaker Investing. I am placing it in my top 3 without hesitation. He tears apart all the fake rules. Sell when it doubles. Spread it everywhere. Bonds for safety. No. Absolutely not.

 

Real diversification means you pick a handful of powerhouse companies, equal bets, all chasing stock like returns. Then you diversify the rest of your portfolio into low cost stock index funds. You do not stuff half your money into sleepy assets just because the noise makes you nervous. You are not protecting yourself from loss. You are protecting yourself from boredom.

 

Here is the thing. 60% of Americans now have money in the markets², an all time high. That means a lot of people are about to experience exponential growth in a real way. It also means a small, very loud group is about to panic. When that happens, they will blame you, blame me, blame the market, blame gravity, blame anything except the fact that they forgot markets move up and down.

 

Here’s what I’ve learned. Pain is contagious. When you have pain you have 3 choices.

  1. You can deal with it by taking a hard look in the mirror and owning your actions.
  2. You can recycle it by whining to everyone about how unlucky you are.
  3. You can transmit it by convincing others that real investing is doomed to fail.

That last one spreads like a virus. “My advisor put me in NVIDIA, see, it is crashing.” Never mind they bought it after a 90% run up. Never mind they never learned that volatility is baked into the recipe. That is the trap.

 

Here is my holiday gift to you. Go get Rule Breaker Investing by David Gardner. Read it then read it again. Think about which portfolio you would pick if no one were watching. If it is the wild one, and you can handle the wobble, then let’s keep it that way. If it is the safe one, that’s fine too. We will find you the glider. Just make sure fear does not become di-worsification for everyone else.

We are going to spend the next year walking clients through all of this, not to scare anyone or to hold their hand, but to show them that growth is not a luxury. It is a necessity. It is math, and math doesn’t care how nervous you felt along the way. This isn’t about following rules. It is about understanding reality. So the question is simple. Are we ready to break a few rules together?

 

¹ Source: https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/mi-guide-to-the-markets-us.pdf
² Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx#:~:text=Editor’s%20Note:%20This%20article%20was,Economy%20and%20Personal%20Finance%20survey.

Is There an AI Bubble? What Investors Need to Know Before Making a Move

The AI Boom: Opportunity or Overheating?

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the buzzword of the decade. From ChatGPT to self-driving cars to AI-powered investing tools, the technology has captured imaginations and markets. In 2023–2025, AI-related companies saw explosive growth, and investors piled in.

But now, a new question is surfacing: Is this an AI bubble?

At Verde Capital Management, many of our clients hold portfolios with exposure to the technology sector. If you’re not a client, take a look at your own portfolio. Chances are, if you’re in any ETF, you’re exposed to technology and AI as well. So, let’s unpack what’s really happening and what you can do to stay positioned for opportunity without stepping into unnecessary risk.

 

What’s an “AI Bubble,” Exactly?

A bubble happens when excitement drives prices up faster than the fundamentals can support.

In the case of AI, that might look like:

  • Sky-high stock prices for companies that aren’t yet profitable.
  • Massive investments in data centers, chips, and infrastructure that may take years to pay off.
  • Big promises of productivity gains that haven’t yet shown up in real-world results.

That doesn’t mean AI is a fad. Far from it. It simply means the market might be pricing in future potential that’s still years away.

 

Why AI Still Matters Long-Term

The good news is, even if valuations cool, the underlying technology is transformative.

AI isn’t a single company or product. It’s a wave of innovation touching every industry. From financial analysis to healthcare to logistics, AI is streamlining operations and unlocking new efficiencies.

The last time we saw something this revolutionary was the rise of the internet. Yes, there was a dot-com crash then, but two decades later, the companies that delivered real value (Amazon, Google, Apple) reshaped the world.

History suggests the same will be true for AI. A few long-term winners will emerge stronger than ever.

 

How a Tech-Heavy Portfolio Can Navigate the AI Boom

If your portfolio leans heavily toward technology, here’s how to stay smart:

1. Diversify within Tech

Not all tech is created equal. Balance AI-related holdings with established companies that have strong earnings, cash flow, and competitive advantages.

2. Watch Valuations

A great company can still be a bad investment if you pay too much. Our role as advisors is to identify when enthusiasm turns into excess.

3. Think in Decades, Not Headlines

AI will evolve over years, not quarters. Staying invested through volatility can often outperform jumping in and out based on media sentiment.

4. Don’t Let Fear or FOMO Drive Decisions

Both panic and over-excitement lead to poor outcomes. A disciplined, data-driven investment plan helps you benefit from innovation without betting the farm on it.

 

Are We in a Bubble? Maybe. Should You Panic? No.

The “AI bubble” debate isn’t black and white. Some valuations are stretched. Some companies are genuinely revolutionizing entire industries. Both statements can be true.

For investors, this is a moment for measured optimism. Not fear, not frenzy.

At Verde, we stay curious but cautious, forward-thinking but grounded. Our approach focuses on building resilient portfolios that can adapt to innovation and withstand volatility.

 

What’s Next for AI and Investors

Even if the AI sector cools off in the short term, the long-term impact could be enormous. A potential correction could actually create better entry points for disciplined investors who keep cash ready and strategy steady.

The bottom line is the AI era is here. But as with any major innovation, success depends on staying informed, diversified, and aligned with a clear financial plan.

 

Talk to a Financial Advisor Who Understands Innovation

If you want to review how much tech exposure is right for you or explore whether your portfolio is positioned to capture opportunity without unnecessary risk, our team at Verde Capital Management can help.

Schedule a complimentary consultation.

Why Your 401(k) Deserves Better Care

For many Americans, their 401(k) is their single largest asset, often bigger than their home equity, taxable investment accounts, or emergency savings. Yet, ironically, it’s also the account most commonly left on autopilot.

 

You might check your balance occasionally, maybe even increase contributions once in a while. But when it comes to actual investment management like rebalancing, risk alignment, and integration with your broader financial picture, most 401(k)s are flying without a pilot and that’s a problem.

 

The Retirement Readiness Powerhouse You Can’t Afford to Ignore

A well-managed 401(k) can mean the difference between retiring confidently or scrambling to make your savings last. Why? Because your workplace retirement plan likely represents the core of your future income stream. Even modest improvements in investment allocation, fee optimization, and risk management can translate into significant gains over time.

 

Yet, here’s the catch: most financial advisors don’t manage 401(k)s not because they can’t, but because they don’t get paid to. If your account isn’t held at their preferred custodian, they typically leave it out of the plan entirely. That means your largest account isn’t being coordinated with the rest of your portfolio.

 

Managing 401(k)s Where They Are, Not Where We Wish They Were

Unlike many firms, Verde doesn’t need to move your 401(k) to manage it. We manage it directly at its current custodian, integrating it seamlessly into your overall financial strategy.

 

We do this through our partnership with Pontera, a financial technology company that allows fiduciary advisers like us to manage 401(k)s securely without ever seeing or holding your login credentials.

 

Pontera gives us the ability to rebalance, adjust allocations, and ensure your workplace retirement account works in tandem with your other investments. That means your entire portfolio, not just your IRA or taxable accounts, reflects your goals, your risk tolerance, and your retirement timeline.

 

This Isn’t Just Our Opinion, It’s National News

A recent article from The New York Times* highlighted the growing tug-of-war between fintech companies like Pontera and major 401(k) custodians who have historically limited outside adviser access. The piece quoted Verde’s Founder and Chief Visionary Officer, Carl Szasz, who called Pontera a “game changer” because it allows fiduciaries to fully manage clients’ retirement plans in their best interest.

 

Why is this so important? Because it ensures your retirement plan isn’t managed in a silo or worse, left unmanaged altogether.

 

What This Means for You

  • Holistic Retirement Planning: Your 401(k) isn’t an island. It should be part of your broader investment and tax strategy. 
  • Professional Oversight: We make sure your largest asset isn’t collecting dust while your other investments get all the attention. 
  • No Custodial Transfers Required: We meet your 401(k) where it is. No rollovers, no unnecessary changes, no hidden agenda. 
  • True Fiduciary Care: As fiduciaries, our legal obligation is to act in your best interest, not ours. 

 

Retirement readiness isn’t just about contributing more. It’s about making your existing savings work smarter. If your 401(k) is your biggest financial asset, shouldn’t it get the same level of professional care as the rest of your portfolio?

 

Schedule a call with our team to learn how we can integrate and manage your 401(k) as part of your full wealth strategy.

 

*Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/10/your-money/401-k-fintech-advisers-fidelity.html